Answer · confidence: thin
Do coin prices change after paid promo posts, and do promoters sell to fans?
Research question: On-chain, do token price and volume paths change measurably in the hours after paid promotional posts, and do wallets linked to promoters sell into follower buying? Which studies have measured this with fee-adjusted returns?
The records show that in 1021 studied pump-and-dump events, about 70% of pre-event volume traded within one hour of the pump announcement 8. These pump announcements are not described as paid promotional posts, and the insider-profit estimates are only conservative lower bounds, with median returns above 100% 89. Another study reports noticeable changes in trade volume and liquidity during such episodes but does not quantify them 1. None of the supplied facts measure promoter-wallet selling into follower buying or report fee-adjusted returns, and the 2026 media-pressure study explicitly excludes paid promoter posts 46. The newest fact comes from a 2026 study whose data run to 31 January 2026, so it is recent relative to October 2026 6.
Checked 2026-10-23. Only documented and supported facts are used.
Dig deeper on this questionSources
[1] supported
The authors report noticeable changes in trade volume and liquidity during the detected pump-and-dump episodes, but they do not quantify the size of these changes.
"There were noticeable variations in trade volumes and liquidity during the detected pump-and-dump episodes, which pointed to unusual market behaviour."Analysing Cryptocurrency Pump and Dump Scams through Social Media (2023)
[2] supported
The paper says the Bitcoin pump-and-dump actions it examined took place over very brief periods of time, with a sharp rise and decline in price.
"The graph's analysis revealed that Bitcoin pump-and-dump actions had place over very brief periods of time."Analysing Cryptocurrency Pump and Dump Scams through Social Media (2023)
[3] supported
Price moves after one-day abnormal returns in BTC, ETH and LTC tend to continue in the direction of the overreaction until the end of that day, a momentum pattern the authors say offers exploitable profit opportunities. This concerns overreactions in general, not paid promotional posts.
"Prices tend to move in the direction of the overreaction till the end of the day when it occurs, which implies the existence of a momentum effect on that day giving rise to exploitable profit opportunities."Momentum Effects in the Cryptocurrency Market after One-Day Abnormal Returns (2019)
[4] supported
A study of news-media pressure on Bitcoin reports that media pressure explains roughly 16–17% of abnormal returns during peak events, with an effect half-life of about 30 days. It does not study paid promotional posts, on-chain wallets, or fee-adjusted returns.
"Results show that media pressure explains approximately 16–17% of abnormal returns during peak events, with an effect half-life of around 30 days."Media Pressure and Abnormal Returns in Cryptocurrency Markets: Evidence from Global News Data (GDELT) and the Bitcoin Media Pressure Index (BMPI) (2026)
[5] supported
The same study reports that Granger causality tests find media activity significantly precedes anomalous price movements in Bitcoin, though this concerns general news media rather than paid promoter posts.
"Granger causality tests confirm that media activity significantly precedes anomalous price movements."Media Pressure and Abnormal Returns in Cryptocurrency Markets: Evidence from Global News Data (GDELT) and the Bitcoin Media Pressure Index (BMPI) (2026)
[6] supported
Across 29 identified Bitcoin price peaks, media accounts for on average about 16.86% of abnormal returns within event windows, with an associated effect half-life of 32.9 days. This concerns news coverage, not paid promotional posts, and it does not measure wallet behavior or fee-adjusted returns.
"Across 29 identified Bitcoin price peaks, the mean media contribution within event windows is 16.86% of abnormal returns, while the associated effect half-life reaches 32.9 days."Media Pressure and Abnormal Returns in Cryptocurrency Markets Evidence from Global News Data (GDELT) and the Bitcoin Media Pressure Index (BMPI) (2026)
[7] supported
The study concludes that media pressure works as a short-term amplification mechanism rather than a long-run equilibrium factor in cryptocurrency pricing.
"The findings suggest that media pressure acts as a short-term amplification mechanism rather than a long-run equilibrium factor in cryptocurrency price formation."Media Pressure and Abnormal Returns in Cryptocurrency Markets: Evidence from Global News Data (GDELT) and the Bitcoin Media Pressure Index (BMPI) (2026)
[8] supported
In the studied pump-and-dump events on 1021 tokens, about 70% of pre-event volume traded within one hour of the pump announcement.
"observe that 70% of pre-event volume transacts within one hour of the pump announcement"Microstructure and Manipulation: Quantifying Pump-and-Dump Dynamics in Cryptocurrency Markets (2025) [cited 0 times]
[9] supported
Insider profits were estimated as conservative lower bounds under a single liquidation at 70% of peak price and under a tranche-based exit, with median returns above 100% and upper-quartile returns above 2000%.
"we compute conservative lower bounds on insider profits under both a single-point liquidation at 70% of peak and a tranche-based strategy (selling 20% at 50%, 30% at 60%, and 50% at 80% of peak), yielding median returns above 100% and upper-quartile returns exceeding 2000%"Microstructure and Manipulation: Quantifying Pump-and-Dump Dynamics in Cryptocurrency Markets (2025) [cited 0 times]