Do unlock days crash prices, and who gets to sell first by October 2026?

"Blast is winding down its L2"

"Yes — ~90% negative across 16,000+ events (Keyrock); 88.5% negative within 72h (SSRN 2026)"

"The 72% crash preceded the unlock and was driven primarily by profit-taking after a 300% weekly rally, with token unlock fears amplifying the sell-off and approximately $33 million in perpetual liquidations recorded."

"Only 22.8% of AKE's 100 billion total supply is currently in circulation, meaning ongoing monthly unlocks will continue to increase sell-side pressure over the next three years. ... Approximately 54.9% of AKE's total supply (roughly 54.88 billion tokens) remains locked across 36 remaining unlock events, according to Tokenomics.com."

"The February 2026 RAIN unlock releases ~37 billion tokens, equal to ~10.9% of circulating supply, creating a meaningful supply shock."

"The unlocked tokens originate from multiple vested allocations: Team & Shareholders Treasury Community Airdrops Reserve Allocations"

"Rain employs a 2.5% trading fee, partially used to buy back and burn RAIN tokens. In theory, this deflationary pressure counterbalances supply expansion."

"These tokens are typically allocated to: Team members Early investors Venture capital funds Ecosystem grants Advisors"

"Most projects lock these tokens at launch to prevent immediate dumping. They follow a vesting schedule — often called a crypto unlock schedule — which releases tokens gradually over time."

"Because impact depends on: Size of unlock relative to circulating supply Liquidity depth Market conditions Narrative strength Demand absorption capacity"

"Significant shareholder – Triple-V 9,435,939 9,435,939 Private Placement 10,386,148 10,386,148 Founding Investors 9,078,622 9,078,622"

"Second, the same 88.5% of events underperform Bitcoin on a relative basis; one-way ANOVA across five Bitcoin regimes finds no statistically significant modulation of the effect (F-test p = 0.24)."

"Not subject to lock-up 0 % 122,716,614 $ 52,768"

"Keyrock (2024) analyzed over 16,000 unlock events and documented a 90% negative price impact within a 30-day window, establishing the broad pattern of underperformance."

"The fair value per INX Token as of December 31,2022 and December 31,2021, for tokens that are not subject to lock-up agreement was $0.43 and $2.2 respectively, based on the closing market price of the INX Token."

"Third, we report an exploratory, hypothesisgenerating observation: within our sample, all 14 events occurring within a 60-day window around the 365-day post-listing anniversary exhibit negative returns."

"INX offered up to 130 million INX Tokens at a price of $0.90 per INX"

"the FDV premium and a 12-week dilution rate predict cross-sectional returns with Newey–West t-statistics of −3.13 and −2.79"

"we find that the size of sell orders significantly correlates with negative future token returns, while buy size positively correlates with future token returns."

"8,658,685 restricted AVAX tokens from six counterparties, with a fair value of $106.5 million, pursuant to a combination of the Contribution Agreement, the TSA, and separate subscription or contribution agreements with each investor."

"Pursuant to the terms hereof, Anchorage agrees to enforce (whether through itself or an affiliate) the Lock-Up Schedule, which shall require Anchorage (or such affiliate) to restrict withdrawals and transfers of applicable Native Tokens"

"portfolio sorts yield annualized long–short spreads of 25– 32%"

"we find a mean reassessment of token value following short sales of up to 0.79% within just one follow-up trade (buy orders up to 0.50%)."

"These restrictions are implemented through a combination of paper-lock provisions (contractual restrictions enforced through the terms of the applicable agreements) and P-chain lock provisions (protocol- enforced restrictions embedded at the Avalanche blockchain level)."

"Anchorage’s total liability for all claims arising from or related to the Lock-Up Support Services shall not exceed, in the aggregate, twenty five thousand dollars ($25,000)."

"The premium is absent in the top-five blue-chip tokens and in mature coins but concentrated in the first year of trading"

"In the case of sell orders, a high proportion of the abnormal return is already realized before the event, which indicates informed trading in the form of arbitrage or frontrunning via Miner Extractable Value (MEV)."

"The lockup schedules vary by investor, with restriction periods ranging from approximately 7 months to approximately 56 months. Each tranche is subject to a staged unlock schedule under which tokens become freely transferable in periodic monthly increments over the restriction period."

"at least fifteen (15) days prior to the date Locked Tokens are deposited in the applicable Lockup Clients’ custody accounts."

"pointing to limited investor attention to publicly disclosed vesting schedules rather than mechanical price pressure."

"Tokens unlock over 48 equal monthly increments beginning September 2026 and concluding August 2030."

"Valuation anchoring and volatility depend on governance primitives such as effective circulating supply and regime-dependent speculative depth."

"indicating that supply expansion events are negatively associated with ETH prices."

"insider allocation Pearson r = 0.09, p = 0.55, N = 50"

"Whileacliffprohibitstheinitialtokenissuance"

"smart contracts embedded in the fabric of the Ember Tokens will require that any exchange listing Ember Tokens be recognized by the smart contract as a registered exchange or as an SEC registered ATS."

"Notwithstanding the foregoing, and subject to the conditions below, the person may transfer Lock-up Securities without the prior written consent of the Representative in connection with (a) transactions relating to Lock-up Securities acquired in open market transactions after the completion of the Offering"

"provided that in the case of any transfer of any Lock-up Securities pursuant to the foregoing clauses (b), (c) or (d), (i) any such transfer shall not involve a disposition for value, (ii) each transferee shall sign and deliver to the Representative a lock-up agreement"

"The person also agrees and consents to the entry of stop transfer instructions with the Company"

"We believe that the value of Ember Tokens will primarily be a function"