Answer · confidence: partial
Do Kohanim and Lemba men's DNA dates match the 2,500-year-old Jewish family split?
Research question: Do Y-chromosome age estimates for the CMH in Kohanim and in Lemba men (with STR-based variance and confidence intervals) overlap with the 2500-year Ashkenazi-Sephardi estimate [8], or do they point to a different date?
The facts do not contain a 2500-year Ashkenazi-Sephardi estimate. Fact 8 instead gives 0.4 ± 0.2 thousand years from five Y-STRs using a pedigree mutation rate, so the question's premise does not match the record. Against the 2500-year figure, the Cohanim estimates that include STR-based intervals partly overlap it: the BATWING median of 4,415 years has a 95% interval of 1,130 to 21,530 years 5, and the non-Ashkenazi estimates of 4.6 ± 1.8 and 3.5 ± 2.1 thousand years from 17 and 9 Y-STRs 7 bracket it only loosely. The records show no Lemba men estimates, so that comparison cannot be made. The newest fact here is from 2021 912, about five years old as of October 2026, and the answer is only partly supported by the verified facts.
Checked 2026-10-18. Only documented and supported facts are used.
Dig deeper on this questionSources
[1] documented
The common ancestor of Cohanim (Jewish High Priests) in haplogroup J1 lived 1070±170 years before present.
"The data show that a common ancestor of Cohanim (Jewish High Priests) of haplogroup J1 lived 1070±170 ybp"Origin of the Jews and the Arabs: Date of their Most Recent Common Ancestor is Written in their Y-Chromosomes - However, There Were Two of Them (2010)
[2] supported
The common ancestor of Cohanim in haplogroup J2 lived 3300±400 years before present.
"while a common ancestor of Cohanim in haplogroup J2 lived 3300±400 ybp."Origin of the Jews and the Arabs: Date of their Most Recent Common Ancestor is Written in their Y-Chromosomes - However, There Were Two of Them (2010)
[3] documented
The most recent common ancestor for Jews and Arabs in haplogroup J2 (subclade J2a*) lived 4175±510 years before present.
"and that (a different one) in haplogroup J2 (subclade J2a*) lived 4300±500 years before present (ybp) and 4175±510 ybp, respectively"Origin of the Jews and the Arabs: Date of their Most Recent Common Ancestor is Written in their Y-Chromosomes - However, There Were Two of Them (2010)
[4] documented
The common ancestor of the 'younger' Jewish branch in the 67-marker haplotype tree lived 1020±170 years before present.
"The “younger”, Jewish only branch on the right-hand side in Fig. 2 had a common ancestor who lived 1020±170 ybp."Origin of the Jews and the Arabs: Date of their Most Recent Common Ancestor is Written in their Y-Chromosomes - However, There Were Two of Them (2010)
[5] documented
A Bayesian-based coalescence analysis using BATWING yields an average median TMRCA for the Cohanim J-P58* lineage of 4,415 years, with a 95% confidence interval ranging from 1,130 to 21,530 years.
"A Bayesian-based coalescence analysis using BATWING (Wilson et al. 2003) on a constructed Ashkenazi population comprised of 95% Israelites and 5% Cohanim yields an average median TMRCA for the Cohanim J-P58* lineage of 4,415 years (95% CI 1,130–21,530 years) (Table S5)."Extended Y chromosome haplotypes resolve multiple and unique lineages of the Jewish priesthood (2009)
[6] documented
The Cohanim J-P58* lineage is estimated to have diverged from a common ancestor more than 2,000 years ago, consistent with a pre-diaspora origin.
"are estimated to have diverged from a common ancestor >2,000 years ago, is consistent with the hypothesis that the J-P58* lineage traces the Cohanim dynasty to a time before the Jewish diaspora."Extended Y chromosome haplotypes resolve multiple and unique lineages of the Jewish priesthood (2009)
[7] documented
Divergence time estimates for the non-Ashkenazi community are older than those for Ashkenazi Cohanim, with specific estimates of 4.6 ± 1.8 and 3.5 ± 2.1 thousand years for 17 and 9 Y-STRs respectively.
"Y-STR variation associated with this haplogroup is older in the non-Ashkenazi community (e.g., we obtained divergence time estimates of 4.6 § 1.8 and 3.5 § 2.1 kyears for the"Extended Y chromosome haplotypes resolve multiple and unique lineages of the Jewish priesthood (2009)
[8] documented
Using the five Y-STRs from the original CMH study with a pedigree mutation rate of 0.0021/generation results in a much lower lineage divergence time estimate of 0.4 ± 0.2 thousand years.
"This eVect is exaggerated when assuming the pedigree mutation rate of 0.0021/generation, which was implemented in the Thomas et al. (1998) calculation (i.e., we obtain a J-P58* lineage divergence time estimate of 0.4 § 0.2 kyears)."Extended Y chromosome haplotypes resolve multiple and unique lineages of the Jewish priesthood (2009)
[9] documented
The Cohen modal haplotype (CMH) is associated with the specific Y-chromosome branch J1a1a1a1a1a1a2-B877.
"Here, we confirm this Cohen-specific branch in haplogroup J1-M267 as J1a1a1a1a1a1a2-B877 (Fig. 2, Supplementary Fig. S1)."Origin and diffusion of human Y chromosome haplogroup J1-M267 (2021)
[10] documented
46.1% of all Cohens fall within the lineage defined by the Cohen modal haplotype.
"This later study reports that 46.1% of all Cohens fall within this lineage."Origin and diffusion of human Y chromosome haplogroup J1-M267 (2021)
[11] documented
All Jewish lineages of haplogroup J1-M267 fall into the J1a1a1-P58 branch, suggesting an ultimate origin in the Levant.
"All Jewish lineages of haplogroup J1-M267 fall into the J1a1a1-P58 branch (Supplementary Fig. S1), which suggests their origin ultimately in the Levant."Origin and diffusion of human Y chromosome haplogroup J1-M267 (2021)
[12] documented
The time to most recent common ancestor (TMRCA) for haplogroup J1-M267 is estimated at approximately 20.3 thousand years ago.
"We estimated the TMRCA of haplogroup J1-M267 to be ~ 20.3 kya with 95% highest posterior density (HPD) interval of 16.3–24.4 kya (Fig. 2, Table 1, Supplementary File S1)."Origin and diffusion of human Y chromosome haplogroup J1-M267 (2021)