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What did 2016 Mars plans promise, and which goals came true by 2026?

Research question: What did the early Mars timelines of 2016 promise, and which of those targets were met by 2026?

The 2016 timelines promised an uncrewed SpaceX vehicle to Mars by 2018 and a first crewed mission by 2024 ⁷⁹. Musk also said the company would send humans to Mars by 2024 and announced the Red Dragon mission for the end of the decade ⁶¹³. The plan called for Starship to carry up to 100 tonnes per trip with on-orbit refilling, and the ITS concept aimed to carry 100 people in an average of 115 days ⁴¹². The records show the 2024 crewed deadline was not met ⁶, and the earlier deadlines were missed amid repeated setbacks ¹⁰. The only clearly met target in the facts is the Falcon 9 first-stage reuse goal, achieved on 30 March 2017 ¹⁸, and the newest fact is from 30 May 2025, about 17 months before October 2026, so the records do not show whether the uncrewed Starship mission planned for late 2026 happened ¹⁴.

Checked 2026-10-21. Only documented and supported facts are used.

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Sources

[1] supported

As of 2023, NASA planned to return humans to the Moon by 2025 and then send them to Mars in the 2030s or 2040s.

"Planning is underway at NASA to return humans to the Moon by 2025 and from there to Mars in 2030-40s."

Advanced Reconnaissance Missions Needed for Human Exploration of Mars (2023)

[2] supported

In 2016 SpaceX CEO Elon Musk estimated that reusability alone would cut the cost per tonne delivered to Mars by at least two orders of magnitude compared with what NASA had previously achieved.

"SpaceX CEO Elon Musk estimates that the reusability capability alone, on both the launch vehicle and the spacecraft associated with the Starship will reduce overall system costs per tonne delivered to Mars by at least two orders of magnitude over what NASA had previously achieved."

Interplanetary spaceflight

[3] supported

Musk's 2016 plan aimed for a roughly 4.5 order-of-magnitude improvement in Mars trip costs, with most of the gain from full reusability and the rest from in-orbit refilling, Mars propellant production, and propellant choice.

"Most of the improvement would come from full reusability—somewhere between 2 and 2 1/2 orders of magnitude—and then the other 2 orders of magnitude would come from refilling in orbit, propellant production on Mars, and choosing the right propellant."

Interplanetary spaceflight

[4] supported

The planned Starship design was to carry up to 100 tonnes of cargo and passengers per trip to Mars, with on-orbit propellant refilling before the interplanetary leg.

"capable of transporting up to 100 tonnes"

Interplanetary spaceflight

[5] supported

SpaceX planned for the first Starship to Mars to carry a small propellant plant as part of its cargo, to produce propellant on Mars for return trips.

"The first Starship to Mars will carry a small propellant plant as a part of its cargo load."

Interplanetary spaceflight

[6] supported

In 2016, Musk said he wanted to send humans to Mars by 2024, and the document states this did not happen.

"In 2016, Musk said he wanted to send humans to Mars by 2024—which did not happen."

Musk Says He Wants To Send Rocket To Mars Next Year, With Human Missions As Soon As 2029

[7] supported

In 2016, Musk said he wanted to send an uncrewed SpaceX vehicle to Mars as early as 2018, and he targeted 2024 for the first crewed mission.

"In 2016, Musk said he wanted to send an uncrewed SpaceX vehicle to Mars as early as 2018, while he was targeting 2024 to launch the first crewed mission there."

Musk says 50-50 chance of sending uncrewed Starship to Mars by late 2026

[8] supported

In September 2016, Musk presented the Interplanetary Transport System (ITS) concept at the 67th International Astronautical Congress, which was meant to enable the first crewed flight to Mars.

"Im September 2016 stellte Musk auf dem 67. Internationalen Astronautischen Kongress in Nachfolge des MCT das Konzept der Großrakete Interplanetary Transport System (ITS) vor, mit der erstmals ein bemannter Flug zum Mars ermöglicht werden sollte."

Starship

[9] supported

SpaceX planned to send an unmanned spacecraft to Mars by 2018.

"SpaceX, the space exploration firm founded by Elon Musk, is planning to send an unmanned spacecraft to Mars by 2018."

Elon Musk and the mission to put an astronaut on Mars

[10] supported

Musk's Mars ambitions have been beset by repeated setbacks over recent years, so the earlier deadlines were missed.

"But the mercurial entrepreneur’s ambitions for interplanetary exploration have been beset by repeated setbacks over recent years."

Musk says 50-50 chance of sending uncrewed Starship to Mars by late 2026

[11] supported

Mars-colonization development work led in 2017 to the BFR super-heavy rocket project, which was renamed Starship in 2018.

"Diese Vorarbeiten mündeten 2017 in dem Großraketenprojekt BFR , welches 2018 in Starship umbenannt wurde."

SpaceX

[12] supported

The 2016 ITS plan aimed to carry 100 people to Mars in an average of 115 days.

"Ziel war es, mit dem System 100 Menschen in durchschnittlich 115 Tagen zum Planeten Mars zu befördern."

Starship

[13] supported

SpaceX announced its intention to send an updated Dragon spacecraft, named Red Dragon, to Mars by the end of the decade.

"In a tweet, the company announced its intention to send an updated version of its Dragon spacecraft , named Red Dragon, to the red planet by the end of the decade."

Elon Musk and the mission to put an astronaut on Mars

[14] supported

As of May 2025, Musk put a 50-50 chance on meeting the 2026 deadline for the first uncrewed Starship mission to Mars, and said SpaceX would wait another two years if not ready.

"In the video, Musk said he believed there was a 50-50 chance SpaceX would meet the 2026 deadline for the first mission. He added that if Starship was not ready by that time, SpaceX would wait another two years before trying again."

Musk says 50-50 chance of sending uncrewed Starship to Mars by late 2026

[15] supported

The Raptor engine was designed to use a propellant that could in principle be produced on Mars, so a return trip to Earth would be possible, unlike the Merlin engine on Falcon rockets.

"Im Gegensatz zum Merlin-Triebwerk der Falcon-Raketen sollte das Raptor einen Treibstoff verwenden, der prinzipiell auch auf dem Mars herstellbar ist, um von dort auch wieder zur Erde zurückkehren zu können."

SpaceX

[16] supported

The 2016 ITS was designed to be 122 m tall and to carry up to 550 t of payload to low Earth orbit.

"Das ITS sollte 122 m hoch sein und bis zu 550 t Nutzlast in einen niedrigen Erdorbit transportieren können."

Starship

[17] supported

Musk described the Red Dragon Mars mission as the first test flight for Dragon's ability to land on other planets.

"Red Dragon Mars mission is the first test flight."

Elon Musk and the mission to put an astronaut on Mars

[18] supported

The reuse goal for Falcon 9 first stages was achieved on 30 March 2017, when the same first stage used for CRS-8 in April 2016 flew the SES-10 mission.

"Am 30. März 2017 wurde auch das Ziel der Wiederverwendung erreicht"

SpaceX

[19] supported

Starship was designed with the aim of full reusability, intended to greatly lower transport costs per tonne of payload compared with Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy.

"Ein wesentliches Merkmal dieser Rakete ist ihre angestrebte vollständige Wiederverwendbarkeit."

SpaceX