Answer · confidence: partial

Over years, do regular traders beat people who just hold a big coin?

Research question: For ordinary traders who buy and sell often, how do their results over several years compare with simply buying a major coin and holding it?

The records do not measure actual results for ordinary traders; they test simulated trading rules instead. In out-of-sample testing from 2019 to 2026, a popular Triple Supertrend rule returned about 8.0% a year versus 15.1% a year for buy-and-hold on an equal-weighted Nifty 50 portfolio, though it had lower volatility and smaller drawdowns ¹. Buying index options on the same signals lost money in simulation ². For cryptocurrencies the evidence conflicts: complex technical rules beat buy-and-hold on Bitcoin and 10 altcoins over 2021 to 2022 ³, while a separate study using data through 2021 found that single or paired-indicator strategies did not beat simply holding ⁴. The newest fact is from 2026, so it is current to within the year, but the evidence covers only a few markets and periods.

Checked 2026-10-21. Only documented and supported facts are used.

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Sources

[1] supported

In out-of-sample testing from 2019 to 2026, the Triple Supertrend trading rule returned about 8.0% a year versus 15.1% a year for buy-and-hold on an equal-weighted Nifty 50 portfolio, though the rule had lower volatility and smaller drawdowns. This is a simulated rule, not actual trader results.

"Out of sample, the strategy returns 8.0% a year against 15.1% for buy-and-hold, with volatility of 8.5% against 17.4% and a maximum drawdown of-12.1% against-38.6%."

[2] supported

Buying index options on the same trading signals loses money in simulation.

"Buying index options on the same signals loses money in simulation."

[3] supported

Complex technical trading rules beat simple buy-and-hold on Bitcoin and 10 altcoins over 2021 to 2022.

"The results proved that the CTTRs strategy offers forecasting power when trading Bitcoin and alt coins, causing the trade to outperform the traditional or default B&H strategy."

Optimizing Returns in Cryptocurrency Markets: A Comparative Analysis of Complex Technical Trading Rules and Buy-and-Hold Strategies (2025)

[4] documented

Technical trading strategies based on single indicators or on combinations of two indicators did not produce higher returns than simply buying and holding cryptocurrencies.

"The authors find that the trading strategies based on single indicators or the combination of two indicators do not generate higher returns than buy-and-hold returns among cryptos."

Do technical trading rules outperform the simple buy-and-hold strategy in the cryptocurrency market? (2023)