Do most regular people who trade crypto end up making money over time?
Research question: What do studies and large datasets show about the share of retail crypto traders who end up profitable over a year or more?
The verified facts contain no study of retail crypto traders, so they cannot directly answer the question. The closest evidence is a 2019 study of Brazilian stock-futures day traders, in which 97% of those who persisted for more than 300 days lost money net of fees 1. Other Brazilian figures show similar results: only 3% of persistent traders in a futures study with a four-year window made any profit 5, and only 1.1% of persistent day traders earned more than minimum wage over five years 6. The newest fact is a September 2025 article covering 2020–2023 data, so it is about a year old as of October 2026 3.
Sources
"Considering the performance net of exchange and brokerage fees, we find that 97% of all investors who persisted for more than 300 days lost money."Day trading
"Mais de 90% das pessoas que tentam day trade perdem dinheiro"Logo Mais Retorno
"A perda média por investidor chegou a R$ 10,2 mil — sem considerar custos de corretagem, taxas da bolsa, cursos ou plataformas de operação — ou seja, os prejuízos foram ainda maiores."Brasileiros perderam quase R$ 10 bilhões com day trade na pandemia, diz estudo da FGV - Monitor do Mercado
"Only 17 individuals (1.1% of 1,551) earned more than the Brazilian minimum wage ( US$ 16 per day), only eight individuals (0.5% of 1,551) earned more than the initial salary of a bank teller (US$54 per day)"Day trading
"only 3% of those who persisted beyond 300 trading days made any profit"Is Day Trading Profitable in 2026? A Data-Driven Reality Check
"A landmark Brazilian study found that over a five-year window, only 1.1% of day traders who persisted earned more than minimum wage from their trading."Is Day Trading Profitable in 2026? A Data-Driven Reality Check