Can small traders profit from crypto price gaps, or do fast robots take everything?
Research question: Can a small trader realistically earn anything from crypto price gaps on decentralized exchanges, or do the fastest automated players take nearly all of it?
The records suggest the fastest automated players capture most of the value, because in continuous-time trading arbitrageurs compete on speed 9 and the first arbitrageur to trade after a price move captures the profit 3. Small opportunities are common but tiny, since many blocks contain pure-revenue profits under 1% of stealable fees 12, yet a substantial number of blocks contain profits above 20% 14. Competition is costly: only 27.3% of Uniswap arbitrage attempts succeeded, and failed attempts consumed 224 ETH in gas 13, while 46 of 88 cyclic arbitrage implementations had negative revenue 11. The large desk results come from a specialized operation whose gains are lumpy and slowing, as DeFi Technologies cut its 2025 revenue guidance when arbitrage slowed 5 and a single trade's return is expected to be realized over three years 2; the newest fact is a 2026 study dated only to the year 16, so the evidence is roughly a year old at most as of October 2026, and a 2026 study finds that a long-only trader with realistic costs has no detectable edge in small DEX-only tokens 16.
Sources
"Compared to counterfactual trades executed on V3, all CoWSwap trades exhibit significantly positive welfare, with trades smaller than 1 ETH exceeding 500 bps."Execution Welfare Across Solver-based DEXes
"which is expected to be realized over three years if the trade is held to maturity"6-K Defi Technologies, Inc. (DEFT) (CIK 0001888274) 2025-11-06
"When the underlying value of the assets changes, the first arbitrageur who trades with the CFAMM will bring its marginal price (i.e., the price of an arbitrarily small trade) in line with the equilibrium price."Arbitrageurs' profits, LVR, and sandwich attacks: batch trading as an AMM design response
"The average values for green and orange are 41.7 Gwei and 32.5 Gwei correspondingly."Execution Welfare Across Solver-based DEXes
"This adjustment reflects a delay in executing DeFi Alpha arbitrage opportunities as a result of the proliferation of digital asset treasury companies and the consolidation of digital asset prices in the latter half of 2025, which has temporarily reduced arbitrage activity and compressed available trading spreads."6-K Defi Technologies, Inc. (DEFT) (CIK 0001888274) 2025-11-14
"The total sum of DeFi Alpha trades for 2025 thus far is $27 million."6-K Defi Technologies, Inc. (DEFT) (CIK 0001888274) 2025-11-06
"sandwich attacks in which an attacker front-runs a victim’s swap with a swap in the same direction and then back-runs it with another swap in the opposite direction"Arbitrageurs' profits, LVR, and sandwich attacks: batch trading as an AMM design response
"With the proliferation of digital asset treasury companies in the latter half of 2025, the Company experienced delays in its pipeline of arbitrage opportunities and compressed arbitrage profits."6-K Defi Technologies, Inc. (DEFT) (CIK 0001888274) 2025-11-14
"The main result is that when trading happens in continuous time, arbitrageurs compete on speed. When traders are instead batched (that is, collected over a given time interval and then settled), arbitrageurs compete on price"Arbitrageurs' profits, LVR, and sandwich attacks: batch trading as an AMM design response
"Of all blocks since block 3,875,490 (the first block we observed with a pure revenue OO fee from decentralized exchange arbitrage), approximately 3.6% contain at least one pure revenue arbitrage transaction."Flash Boys 2.0: Frontrunning in Decentralized Exchanges, Miner Extractable Value, and Consensus Instability (2020)
"Consequently, 46 out of 88 se-"Cyclic Arbitrage in Decentralized Exchanges (2022)
"Of these blocks, 17,897 blocks contain pure revenue OO profits that are < 1% of the total stealable fees, confirming our earlier conclusions that the most frequent pure revenue arbitrage opportunities are for small price differences in the course of normal trading across exchanges."Flash Boys 2.0: Frontrunning in Decentralized Exchanges, Miner Extractable Value, and Consensus Instability (2020)
"yieldingasuccessrateof27.3%(9,955outof36,492)."Cyclic Arbitrage in Decentralized Exchanges (2022)
"Nonetheless, many blocks do contain substantial pure revenue fees. 36,860 observed blocks contain pure revenue fees that exceed 20% of total stealable fees"Flash Boys 2.0: Frontrunning in Decentralized Exchanges, Miner Extractable Value, and Consensus Instability (2020)
"cyclicarbitrageursis21,360ETH(upperbound:25,742ETH),"Cyclic Arbitrage in Decentralized Exchanges (2022)
"a long-only, realistically-costed trader has no detectable edge that price information can supply"No Edge Without Information: An Empirical Study of Tradeability in Decentralized-Exchange-Only Cryptocurrencies (2026)
"which has successfully generated approximately C$113.8 million (US$83.4 million) thus far in Q2 from low-risk arbitrage trades, marking a robust start for this new venture."40FR12B Defi Technologies, Inc. (DEFT, DEFTF) (CIK 0001888274) 2024-09-16
"generated a one-time return of approximately C$30.2 million (US$22 million) from an arbitrage trade."40FR12B/A Defi Technologies, Inc. (DEFTF) (CIK 0001888274) 2025-05-07
"Price-based timing shows no detectable edge at any horizon (intraday, swing, cross-sectional, cross-chain): real data performs no better than, and usually worse than, its own shuffle"No Edge Without Information: An Empirical Study of Tradeability in Decentralized-Exchange-Only Cryptocurrencies (2026)
"generated C$132.1 million (US$96.8 million) in revenue through systematic arbitrage trading"40FR12B/A Defi Technologies, Inc. (DEFTF) (CIK 0001888274) 2025-05-07
"The strategies practitioners actually use fail too, net of cost (market-neutral hedging, launch timing, liquidity provision, cross-pool arbitrage, regime conditioning, portfolio aggregation, and order flow)"No Edge Without Information: An Empirical Study of Tradeability in Decentralized-Exchange-Only Cryptocurrencies (2026)
"the median strategy loses even at zero cost"No Edge Without Information: An Empirical Study of Tradeability in Decentralized-Exchange-Only Cryptocurrencies (2026)
"its predictability is concentrated in the lower tail (it flags which coins crash, not which rise)"No Edge Without Information: An Empirical Study of Tradeability in Decentralized-Exchange-Only Cryptocurrencies (2026)
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