Answer · confidence: thin
Do most stock day traders make money over a year, and what about crypto?
Research question: When regulators or academic studies track people who day trade stocks over a year, what share end up with a profit, and what do those findings suggest for someone starting in crypto?
The verified facts do not give a share of day traders who end a year with a profit; the 2005 study does not report one 1, and the currency-trader study likewise does not report what share ended with a profit 6. The Brazilian futures data show that the average individual day trader lost about R$10.2 thousand between March 2020 and December 2023, before costs and taxes 10, and the study calls day trading there a zero-sum game with almost every day showing an aggregate loss 12. The only trade-level figure is that top-performing currency traders had 68.78 percent of trades profitable net of costs, which describes a top group rather than all traders 9. None of the facts address crypto, so they cannot say what these findings suggest for someone starting there; the newest fact is dated 2025, roughly a year or more old as of October 2026 5.
Checked 2026-10-20. Only documented and supported facts are used.
Dig deeper on this questionSources
[1] supported
The study finds that extreme emotional responses are counterproductive for trading performance, though it does not report the share of day traders who end up profitable over a year.
"ourresults show thatextreme emotionalresponses are apparently counterproductive from the perspective of trading performance."Fear and Greed in Financial Markets: A Clinical Study of Day-Traders (2005)
[2] supported
Traders who are too emotionally affected by their daily profits and losses tend to have worse overall profit-and-loss records, on average.
"supporting the common wisdom that traders too emotionally a(cid:11)ected by their daily pro(cid:12)ts-and-losses are, on average, less successful."Fear and Greed in Financial Markets: A Clinical Study of Day-Traders (2005)
[3] supported
The authors suggest that a reduced level of emotional reactivity may be one component of successful trading.
"one component of successful trading may be a reduced level of emotional reactivity."Fear and Greed in Financial Markets: A Clinical Study of Day-Traders (2005)
[4] documented
A 5-minute Opening Range Breakout strategy on QQQ produced a cumulative return of 672.71% and an annualized alpha of 33.36% over the 2016–2023 period.
"Our replication confirms the authors' original results, with the QQQ-based ORB strategy producing a cumulative return of 672.71% and an annualized alpha of 33.36%, significantly outperforming the passive QQQ benchmark.""Can Day Trading Really Be Profitable?" -A Replication Study (2025)
[5] documented
The day trading strategy failed to deliver consistent out-performance when applied to securities other than QQQ and TQQQ.
"However, when applied to other securities beyond QQQ and TQQQ, the strategy failed to deliver consistent out-performance, suggesting its effectiveness may be asset specific.""Can Day Trading Really Be Profitable?" -A Replication Study (2025)
[6] supported
In a study of 428 individual currency traders, day traders outperformed non-day traders on raw, passive benchmarks and on a risk-adjusted basis, though the study does not report what share of day traders ended with a profit.
"the results reveal that day traders not only trade more frequently than non-day traders, but also outperform them based on raw, passive benchmarks and on a risk-adjusted return basis."Three Essays on Individual Currency Traders (2019)
[7] supported
Individual currency traders in the study earned positive excess returns even after transaction costs were taken into account.
"Examination of daily returns for 428 accounts from March 2004 to September 2009 shows traders are able to earn positive excess returns, even after accounting for transaction costs."Three Essays on Individual Currency Traders (2019)
[8] supported
In this study of 53 London traders, the traders' Sharpe Ratios increased markedly with the number of years they had traded, which the authors read as evidence that learning raises trader returns.
"We do, however, find that the traders’ Sharpe Ratios increase markedly with the number of years they have traded, a result suggesting that learning plays a role in increasing the returns of traders."A Note on Trader Sharpe Ratios (2009)
[9] supported
The top-performing currency traders had 68.78 percent of their trades profitable net of transaction costs, which the author says was not due to chance.
"We find that 68.78 percent of trades executed by the top traders are profitable net of transaction costs, and profits do not arise from chance."Three Essays on Individual Currency Traders (2019)
[10] supported
Across the period, the average individual day trader in Brazilian futures lost about R$10.2 thousand, before costs and taxes.
"Dividindo o prejuízo agregado do período por esse número de participantes, chega-se a uma perda média de R$ 10,2 mil por pessoa."The COVID-19 and day-trade pandemics in Brazil (2025)
[11] supported
Among individual currency traders, using well-known technical analysis was negatively associated with performance.
"The results show that the use of technical analysis by individual currency traders is negatively associated with performance."Three Essays on Individual Currency Traders (2019)
[12] documented
The study describes day trading in Brazilian futures as a zero-sum game for individuals, in which almost every day shows an aggregate loss.
"um jogo de soma negativa para pessoas físicas, em que quase todos os dias agregam prejuízo e em que, nos raros dias com ganhos, esses são insuficientes para reverter a tendência de perdas sistemáticas."The COVID-19 and day-trade pandemics in Brazil (2025)
[13] documented
On the few days when day traders make an aggregate profit, the gains are very small compared with the losses on losing days.
"Nos poucos dias em que há lucro agregado, os valores positivos são de magnitude muito modesta quando comparados às perdas observadas nos dias negativos."The COVID-19 and day-trade pandemics in Brazil (2025)
[14] supported
Individual day traders in Brazilian futures lost R$9.9 billion gross between the start of the COVID-19 pandemic and the end of 2023, with the money transferred to the financial institutions that traded against them.
"Como não consideramos em nossas contas nenhum custo de operação ou tributário, as perdas de R$ 9,9 bilhões no day trade implicam que esse montante foi diretamente transferido das pessoas físicas para as instituições financeiras que operaram contra elas no mercado futuro."The COVID-19 and day-trade pandemics in Brazil (2025)