Answer · confidence: partial
Do top day traders stay on top the next year, or get shuffled?
Research question: Do the day traders who did well in one year tend to keep doing well the next year, or do their results reshuffle?
The verified facts only partly answer this, because none of them studies day traders' results from one year to the next 123. For stocks with extreme abnormal trading volume, returns persist in the short term, but the effect reverses as volumes return to long-run averages and mispricing is corrected 1. For IPOs, first-day winners tended to stay winners over the first year, and first-day losers stayed relative losers 2, except for "extra-hot" IPOs, which performed worst later 3. The newest fact is from 2024, about two years before October 2026 1.
Checked 2026-10-23. Only documented and supported facts are used.
Dig deeper on this questionSources
[1] documented
Portfolios based on extreme abnormal trading volume show short-term return persistence, but this effect reverses as trading volumes revert to long-run means and mispricing is corrected.
"PATV leads to portfolio returns continuing to drift in the short run.However, the trading volumes of individual stocks in the portfolios gradually revert to their long-run means, accompanied by portfolio returns falling and turning negative as mispricing is corrected."Persistence or reversal? The effects of abnormal trading volume on stock returns (2024)
[2] documented
First-day winners in IPOs continue to be winners over the first year, and first-day losers continue to be relative losers.
"We show that first‐day winners continue to be winners over the first year, and first‐day dogs continue to be relative dogs."The Persistence of IPO Mispricing and the Predictive Power of Flipping (1999)
[3] supported
The exception to the persistence pattern is "extra-hot" IPOs, which perform the worst in the future.
"Exceptions are “extra‐hot” IPOs, which provide the worst future performance."The Persistence of IPO Mispricing and the Predictive Power of Flipping (1999)