Answer · confidence: partial
Which economy reports due next month move bitcoin the most, and by how much?
Research question: Which scheduled economic data releases in the coming month are most likely to move bitcoin's price, and how large were past moves on those days?
The evidence only partly answers this question. Most scheduled US macroeconomic announcements, including budget deficits, inflation and monetary policy decisions, were found not to affect bitcoin's volatility 7, though bitcoin's volatility does rise after consumer confidence announcements 10. Bitcoin's reaction is stronger when the news is negative 8, and GDP and CPI news showed no statistically significant relationship with bitcoin returns 14. The facts do not give the size of bitcoin's past moves on release days, and the strongest volatility effects on US equity ETFs (inflation releases) are not measured for bitcoin 1. The newest fact is dated 2026, which is recent relative to October 2026, but none of these studies is dated to this month 116.
Checked 2026-10-18. Only documented and supported facts are used.
Dig deeper on this questionSources
[1] documented
Inflation data releases historically generate the largest volatility response among scheduled macroeconomic announcements, causing a 3.616-fold increase in SPY volatility and a 4.068-fold increase in QQQ volatility.
"Inflation releases produced the largest volatility response, with a 3.616-fold increase in SPY and 4.068-fold increase in QQQ."Scheduled Macroeconomic Announcements and Intraday Volatility: Evidence from SPY and QQQ (2026)
[2] documented
Scheduled macroeconomic announcements generally cause a 2.5-fold increase in realized volatility for both SPY and QQQ in the 30-minute window following the event.
"SPY exhibiting a 2.5-fold increase and QQQ a 2.5-fold increase in the 30-minute post-event window relative to pre-event levels"Scheduled Macroeconomic Announcements and Intraday Volatility: Evidence from SPY and QQQ (2026)
[3] documented
Monetary policy announcements have a more substantial impact on implied volatility than other macroeconomic announcements.
"Monetary policy announcements have a more substantial impact on implied volatility than other announcements, even after controlling for news surprise components."The Impacts of Macroeconomic News Announcements on Intraday Implied Volatility (2019)
[4] documented
The impact of monetary policy announcements on implied volatility is greater for policy rate hikes than for policy rate cuts.
"Finally, the impact appears to be greater for policy rate hikes than for policy rate cuts."The Impacts of Macroeconomic News Announcements on Intraday Implied Volatility (2019)
[5] documented
The increase in implied volatility around macroeconomic announcements is more pronounced for put options than for call options.
"Specifically, the increase in implied volatility around these announcements is more pronounced for puts than for calls."The Impacts of Macroeconomic News Announcements on Intraday Implied Volatility (2019)
[6] documented
The effects of macroeconomic news on implied volatility are more pronounced in crisis and post-crisis periods than in pre-crisis periods.
"These effects are also more pronounced in the crisis and post-crisis periods than in the pre-crisis period."The Impacts of Macroeconomic News Announcements on Intraday Implied Volatility (2019)
[7] documented
Most scheduled US macroeconomic announcements, including budget deficits, inflation, and monetary policy decisions, do not affect bitcoin's volatility.
"We also find that the volatility of bitcoin is not influenced by most scheduled US macroeconomic news announcements, such as government budget deficits, inflation, or even monetary policy announcements."Impact of macroeconomic news, regulation and hacking exchange markets on the volatility of bitcoin (2020)
[8] documented
Bitcoin's price reaction to U.S. macroeconomic announcements is stronger when the news is negative.
"we found evidence that the impact of macroeconomic announcements on Bitcoin returns is stronger when the announcements are negative"Expectations of Macroeconomic News Announcements: Bitcoin vs. Traditional Assets (2022)
[9] supported
Positive news after unemployment and durable goods announcements was linked to a decrease in Bitcoin returns, the opposite of the typical equity response.
"Increases in positive news after unemployment and durable goods announcements result in a decrease in Bitcoin returns."The impact of macroeconomic news on Bitcoin returns (2020)
[10] documented
Bitcoin's volatility increases in response to announcements of forward-looking indicators, specifically the consumer confidence index.
"On the other hand, bitcoin responds with increased volatility to announcements of forward-looking indicators, such as the consumer confidence index."Impact of macroeconomic news, regulation and hacking exchange markets on the volatility of bitcoin (2020)
[11] supported
Unlike other assets, Bitcoin's returns become more volatile after positive macroeconomic announcements.
"the returns of Bitcoin, unlike those of other assets, are more volatile after positive announcements"Expectations of Macroeconomic News Announcements: Bitcoin vs. Traditional Assets (2022)
[12] supported
An increase in negative news around unemployment and durable goods announcements was linked to an increase in Bitcoin returns.
"Conversely, an increase in the percentage of negative news surrounding these announcements is linked with an increase in Bitcoin returns."The impact of macroeconomic news on Bitcoin returns (2020)
[13] supported
Bitcoin's trading volume does not change on announcement days, unlike other assets, which the authors read as evidence that the same players move its price.
"the trading volume of Bitcoin does not change, unlike other assets, suggesting that the price of Bitcoin is always moved by the same players"Expectations of Macroeconomic News Announcements: Bitcoin vs. Traditional Assets (2022)
[14] supported
News about GDP and CPI was found to have no statistically significant relationship with Bitcoin returns.
"News relating to GDP and CPI are found not to have any statistically significant relationships with Bitcoin returns."The impact of macroeconomic news on Bitcoin returns (2020)
[15] documented
Bitcoin is the most volatile of the assets studied, yet its expected direction of movement after an announcement is comparable to that of 2-year Treasury bills.
"while Bitcoin is the most volatile (i.e., riskiest) of all the assets, the expected direction of movement is visible after the official announcement of the macroeconomic news on that day, and is comparable to that of the 2-year Treasury bills"Expectations of Macroeconomic News Announcements: Bitcoin vs. Traditional Assets (2022)
[16] supported
U.S. CPI inflation data is released at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time, a scheduled release time that the study uses to frame its hourly event windows.
"CPI is released at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time, whereas a daily return aggregates many hours before and after the announcement."Do spot ethereum ETFs change macroeconomic price discovery? Hourly evidence from U.S. inflation announcements (2026)
[17] supported
After spot Ether ETFs began trading, the sensitivity of Ethereum's four-hour return relative to Bitcoin to inflation surprises fell by a pooled 1.13 percentage points, statistically significant at p = 0.026.
"In the ETF era the interaction turns negative, with a pooled change of − 1.13 percentage points (HC3 p = 0.026) that survives wild-bootstrap inference"Do spot ethereum ETFs change macroeconomic price discovery? Hourly evidence from U.S. inflation announcements (2026)
[18] supported
The coefficients for positive and negative monetary policy events were not statistically significant, so these events had no detectable effect on Bitcoin returns.
"Movingontomonetarypolicyevents,thecoefficientsβ andβ arenotsignificant,underliningtheabsenceofaneffectofpositive"Semi-strong efficiency of Bitcoin (2018)