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If bitcoin hit $200,000, would Nakamoto and Keel earn more than they paid?

Research question: If bitcoin reached $200,000 per coin, what would the holdings of Nakamoto and Keel be worth, and how would that compare with their cost basis?

At $200,000 per coin, Keel's 1,861 BTC held as of August 7, 2026 would be worth about $372 million 17. Nakamoto held more than 5,000 BTC as of March 31, 2026 18, so the same price would value those holdings at over $1.0 billion. Nakamoto's weighted average purchase price was $118,171 per coin 19, so 5,000 coins cost roughly $591 million, and a $200,000 price would show a gain of about $409 million, or about 69% above cost. The records provide no cost basis for Keel, so its comparison with cost cannot be determined from these facts 117. The newest fact is from August 7, 2026, about two months before October 2026 17.

Checked 2026-10-19. Only documented and supported facts are used.
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Sources

[1] documented
As of March 31, 2026, Keel held 2,469 Bitcoin with a fair value of $168.5 million, which implies a value of about $68,200 per Bitcoin.
"As of March 31, 2026, we held 2,469 Bitcoin with a fair value of $168.5 million, reflecting a fair value of a single Bitcoin of approximately $68,200."
10-Q Keel Infrastructure Corp. (KEEL) (CIK 0001812477) 2026-05-11
[2] supported
Nakamoto Holdings primarily holds Bitcoin and certain USDT proceeds retained from a loan from Kraken, and as of December 31, 2025 it had no operations other than holding Bitcoin, administering the loan, and making minority investments in Bitcoin companies.
"As of December 31, 2025, Nakamoto Holdings had no operations other than purchasing and holding Bitcoin, administering the Loan and making minority investments in Bitcoin companies."
10-K Nakamoto Inc. (NAKA, NAKAW) (CIK 0001946573) 2026-03-30
[3] documented
Nakamoto's assets are heavily concentrated in its Bitcoin holdings, so a change in Bitcoin's price would strongly affect the company's overall value.
"The vast majority of our assets are concentrated in our Bitcoin holdings."
424B3 Nakamoto Inc. (NAKA, NAKAW) (CIK 0001946573) 2026-03-31
[4] documented
Keel estimated that a 10% change in the Bitcoin price over the first quarter of 2026 would have changed its revenue by $3.0 million for the quarter.
"A 10% increase or decrease in the market price of Bitcoin over the course of the three months ended March 31, 2026, would have increased or decreased our revenue by $3.0 million for the quarter"
10-Q Keel Infrastructure Corp. (KEEL) (CIK 0001812477) 2026-05-11
[5] documented
Nakamoto Inc. valued the combined BTC Inc. and UTXO acquisition at about $81.6 million on February 19, 2026, based on its $0.248 closing share price.
"Based on Nakamoto Inc.’s closing price of $0.248 per share on February 19, 2026, the aggregate consideration for the combined transaction was valued at approximately $81,632,852 (net of aggregate strike prices for assumed options)."
8-K/A Nakamoto Inc. (NAKA, NAKAW) (CIK 0001946573) 2026-04-07
[6] documented
Nakamoto's Kraken loan includes margin-based collateral requirements, so a fall in Bitcoin's market value can trigger a demand for more collateral, partial loan repayment, or liquidation of the Bitcoin collateral.
"If the market value of Bitcoin declines below certain loan-to-value ratios, Kraken may require us to deposit additional Bitcoin as collateral, repay a portion of the Loan, or declare Nakamoto Holdings in default and liquidate some or all of the Bitcoin Collateral without prior notice to us."
10-K Nakamoto Inc. (NAKA, NAKAW) (CIK 0001946573) 2026-03-30
[7] documented
Nakamoto Holdings primarily holds Bitcoin and some USDT proceeds retained from the Kraken Loan.
"Nakamoto Holdings primarily holds Bitcoin and certain USDT proceeds retained from the Loan."
424B3 Nakamoto Inc. (NAKA, NAKAW) (CIK 0001946573) 2026-03-31
[8] documented
Keel's Bitcoin 2.1 program allows the risk management committee to deploy up to 100% of its Bitcoin in treasury, plus three months of expected forward production, plus $10.0 million, to be actively managed.
"The Board authorized the risk management committee to deploy up to (i) 100% of our Bitcoin in treasury, plus (ii) three months of expected forward production calculated on a rolling basis, plus (iii) $10.0 million under Bitcoin 2.1 to be actively managed and participate in volatility-targeting strategies."
10-Q Keel Infrastructure Corp. (KEEL) (CIK 0001812477) 2026-05-11
[9] documented
The base consideration for BTC Inc. was set at about $377.2 million, converted into shares at a fixed PIPE price of $1.12 per share.
"calculated by dividing a base consideration value of approximately $377,220,594 by the fixed PIPE Price Per Share of $1.12 as required by the MSA."
8-K/A Nakamoto Inc. (NAKA, NAKAW) (CIK 0001946573) 2026-04-07
[10] documented
The Master Loan Agreement with Kraken has a stated maturity date of December 4, 2026.
"The Master Loan Agreement has a stated maturity date of December 4, 2026 but includes margin-based collateral maintenance requirements"
10-K Nakamoto Inc. (NAKA, NAKAW) (CIK 0001946573) 2026-03-30
[11] documented
The Kraken Master Loan Agreement requires a minimum Bitcoin collateral level, so if Bitcoin's price falls below certain loan-to-value ratios, Kraken can demand additional Bitcoin collateral, demand partial loan repayment, or declare a default.
"If the market value of Bitcoin declines below certain loan-to-value ratios, Kraken may require us to deposit additional Bitcoin as collateral, repay a portion of the Loan, or declare Nakamoto Holdings in default"
424B3 Nakamoto Inc. (NAKA, NAKAW) (CIK 0001946573) 2026-03-31
[12] supported
Bitcoin does not pay interest or dividends, so cash can only be generated from Bitcoin holdings by selling it or by implementing income strategies.
"Bitcoin does not pay interest or dividends."
10-K Nakamoto Inc. (NAKA, NAKAW) (CIK 0001946573) 2026-03-30
[13] documented
The Master Loan Agreement has a stated maturity date of December 4, 2026.
"The Master Loan Agreement has a stated maturity date of December 4, 2026"
424B3 Nakamoto Inc. (NAKA, NAKAW) (CIK 0001946573) 2026-03-31
[14] supported
The total market capitalization of Bitcoin was $1.7 trillion as of December 2025, while about 20 million Bitcoins had been generated out of a 21 million cap.
"the total market capitalization of Bitcoin reaching $1.7 trillion as of December 2025"
10-K Nakamoto Inc. (NAKA, NAKAW) (CIK 0001946573) 2026-03-30
[15] documented
The Bitcoin protocol caps total Bitcoin supply at 21 million, and about 20 million had been generated as of December 31, 2025.
"The Bitcoin protocol limits the total number of Bitcoins that can be generated over time to 21 million. As of December 31, 2025, approximately 20 million Bitcoins have been generated"
424B3 Nakamoto Inc. (NAKA, NAKAW) (CIK 0001946573) 2026-03-31
[16] documented
As of year end 2025, Nakamoto held 5,342 Bitcoin.
"As of year end, the Company held 5,342 Bitcoin;"
8-K Nakamoto Inc. (NAKA, NAKAW) (CIK 0001946573) 2026-03-31
[17] supported
Keel held 1,861 BTC as of August 7, which the company valued at about $121 million for liquidity purposes.
"Its remaining balance stood at 1,861 BTC, valued by the company at approximately $121 million for liquidity purposes."
Keel exits U.S. Bitcoin mining after $65M loss, shifts to AI
[18] supported
Nakamoto held more than 5,000 Bitcoin as of March 31, 2026, with an aggregate fair value of about $345 million at quarter-end.
"with an aggregate fair value of approximately $345 million at quarter-end"
8-K Nakamoto Inc. (NAKA, NAKAW) (CIK 0001946573) 2026-05-13
[19] documented
Nakamoto's weighted average Bitcoin purchase price was $118,171 per coin, compared with a Bitcoin value of $87,519 at December 31, 2025, which produced a $166.2 million loss on changes in fair value of digital assets.
"Loss on changes in fair value of digital assets of $166.2 million reflects the decline in the value of Bitcoin from Nakamoto’s weighted average purchase price $118,171 to $87,519 at December 31, 2025;"
8-K Nakamoto Inc. (NAKA, NAKAW) (CIK 0001946573) 2026-03-31
[20] supported
Between April 1 and August 7, Keel sold 1,085 BTC for roughly $75 million.
"Between April 1 and Aug. 7, the company sold 1,085 BTC for roughly $75 million."
Keel exits U.S. Bitcoin mining after $65M loss, shifts to AI
[21] documented
Bitcoin's price fell from $87,519 at December 31, 2025 to $68,220 at March 31, 2026, which produced a $102.5 million mark-to-market loss on Nakamoto's Bitcoin.
"Mark-to-market Bitcoin losses of $102.5 million related to the decline in Bitcoin price from $87,519 as of December 31, 2025, to $68,220 as of March 31, 2026"
8-K Nakamoto Inc. (NAKA, NAKAW) (CIK 0001946573) 2026-05-13
[22] documented
After year-end 2025, Nakamoto sold about $20 million of Bitcoin to create a dedicated U.S. dollar operating reserve.
"The Company sold approximately $20 million of Bitcoin to establish a dedicated U.S. dollar operating reserve."
8-K Nakamoto Inc. (NAKA, NAKAW) (CIK 0001946573) 2026-03-31
[23] supported
Keel's stated intent is to liquidate its remaining Bitcoin position in 2026, though this is a plan and not a completed transaction.
"intent is to liquidate our Bitcoin position in 2026."
Keel exits U.S. Bitcoin mining after $65M loss, shifts to AI
[24] supported
During the first quarter of 2026, Nakamoto sold about 284 BTC at the corporate level to support working capital.
"At the corporate level, the Company sold approximately 284 BTC to support working capital requirements."
8-K Nakamoto Inc. (NAKA, NAKAW) (CIK 0001946573) 2026-05-13
[25] supported
As of October 2025, Strategy held 640,418 bitcoin, worth around $70 billion.
"As of October 2025, Strategy held 640,418 bitcoin , worth around $70 billion."
Companies now own more than $100 billion in bitcoin – but the shine may be wearing off crypto treasury companies (2025)
[26] supported
Keel's total liquidity was about $819 million as of August 7, including $121 million of unencumbered Bitcoin.
"Total liquidity reached approximately $819 million as of Aug. 7, comprising $698 million of unrestricted cash and $121 million of unencumbered Bitcoin."
Keel exits U.S. Bitcoin mining after $65M loss, shifts to AI
[27] documented
As of August 20, 2025, Nakamoto (through KindlyMD) held 5,764.91 bitcoin, so at $200,000 per coin those holdings would be worth about $1.15 billion.
"As of August 20, 2025, the Company held 5,764.91 bitcoin, a majority of which were purchased using the net proceeds from the PIPE and Debt Financings."
424B3 Kindly MD, Inc. (NAKA, NAKAW) (CIK 0001946573) 2025-09-04
[28] supported
Strategy first bought about US$250 million worth of bitcoin in mid-2020, which gives a rough sense of its early cost basis.
"Strategy, formerly called MicroStrategy, first bought US$250 million (£187 million) worth of bitcoin in mid-2020 during the depths of the COVID economic slump."
Companies now own more than $100 billion in bitcoin – but the shine may be wearing off crypto treasury companies (2025)
[29] supported
Bitcoin has been highly volatile, trading below $75,000 and above $120,000 per coin on Coinbase in the 12 months before the filing.
"Bitcoin is a highly volatile asset that has traded below $75,000 per Bitcoin and above $120,000"
10-Q Kindly MD, Inc. (NAKA, NAKAW) (CIK 0001946573) 2025-11-19
[30] supported
Kindly MD (the filer, which merged with Nakamoto) completed its merger with Nakamoto, a Bitcoin treasury strategy company, in August 2025.
"we completed our Merger with Nakamoto, a Bitcoin treasury strategy company"
10-Q Kindly MD, Inc. (NAKA, NAKAW) (CIK 0001946573) 2025-11-19
[31] supported
The company views its Bitcoin holdings as long-term and intends to keep accumulating Bitcoin without a set target amount.
"We view our Bitcoin holdings as long-term holdings and expect to continue to accumulate Bitcoin in the future."
10-Q Kindly MD, Inc. (NAKA, NAKAW) (CIK 0001946573) 2025-11-19
[32] documented
The vast majority of the company's assets are concentrated in its Bitcoin holdings, so its value depends heavily on the Bitcoin price.
"The vast majority of our assets are concentrated in our Bitcoin holdings."
10-Q Kindly MD, Inc. (NAKA, NAKAW) (CIK 0001946573) 2025-11-19
[33] supported
The company holds Bitcoin directly and also invests in other companies that hold Bitcoin as a treasury reserve asset, increasing its Bitcoin price exposure.
"We hold Bitcoin directly and also invest in other companies that maintain Bitcoin as a treasury reserve asset"
10-Q Kindly MD, Inc. (NAKA, NAKAW) (CIK 0001946573) 2025-11-19