If bitcoin hit $200,000, would Nakamoto and Keel earn more than they paid?
Research question: If bitcoin reached $200,000 per coin, what would the holdings of Nakamoto and Keel be worth, and how would that compare with their cost basis?
At $200,000 per coin, Keel's 1,861 BTC held as of August 7, 2026 would be worth about $372 million 17. Nakamoto held more than 5,000 BTC as of March 31, 2026 18, so the same price would value those holdings at over $1.0 billion. Nakamoto's weighted average purchase price was $118,171 per coin 19, so 5,000 coins cost roughly $591 million, and a $200,000 price would show a gain of about $409 million, or about 69% above cost. The records provide no cost basis for Keel, so its comparison with cost cannot be determined from these facts 117. The newest fact is from August 7, 2026, about two months before October 2026 17.
Sources
"As of March 31, 2026, we held 2,469 Bitcoin with a fair value of $168.5 million, reflecting a fair value of a single Bitcoin of approximately $68,200."10-Q Keel Infrastructure Corp. (KEEL) (CIK 0001812477) 2026-05-11
"As of December 31, 2025, Nakamoto Holdings had no operations other than purchasing and holding Bitcoin, administering the Loan and making minority investments in Bitcoin companies."10-K Nakamoto Inc. (NAKA, NAKAW) (CIK 0001946573) 2026-03-30
"The vast majority of our assets are concentrated in our Bitcoin holdings."424B3 Nakamoto Inc. (NAKA, NAKAW) (CIK 0001946573) 2026-03-31
"A 10% increase or decrease in the market price of Bitcoin over the course of the three months ended March 31, 2026, would have increased or decreased our revenue by $3.0 million for the quarter"10-Q Keel Infrastructure Corp. (KEEL) (CIK 0001812477) 2026-05-11
"Based on Nakamoto Inc.’s closing price of $0.248 per share on February 19, 2026, the aggregate consideration for the combined transaction was valued at approximately $81,632,852 (net of aggregate strike prices for assumed options)."8-K/A Nakamoto Inc. (NAKA, NAKAW) (CIK 0001946573) 2026-04-07
"If the market value of Bitcoin declines below certain loan-to-value ratios, Kraken may require us to deposit additional Bitcoin as collateral, repay a portion of the Loan, or declare Nakamoto Holdings in default and liquidate some or all of the Bitcoin Collateral without prior notice to us."10-K Nakamoto Inc. (NAKA, NAKAW) (CIK 0001946573) 2026-03-30
"Nakamoto Holdings primarily holds Bitcoin and certain USDT proceeds retained from the Loan."424B3 Nakamoto Inc. (NAKA, NAKAW) (CIK 0001946573) 2026-03-31
"The Board authorized the risk management committee to deploy up to (i) 100% of our Bitcoin in treasury, plus (ii) three months of expected forward production calculated on a rolling basis, plus (iii) $10.0 million under Bitcoin 2.1 to be actively managed and participate in volatility-targeting strategies."10-Q Keel Infrastructure Corp. (KEEL) (CIK 0001812477) 2026-05-11
"calculated by dividing a base consideration value of approximately $377,220,594 by the fixed PIPE Price Per Share of $1.12 as required by the MSA."8-K/A Nakamoto Inc. (NAKA, NAKAW) (CIK 0001946573) 2026-04-07
"The Master Loan Agreement has a stated maturity date of December 4, 2026 but includes margin-based collateral maintenance requirements"10-K Nakamoto Inc. (NAKA, NAKAW) (CIK 0001946573) 2026-03-30
"If the market value of Bitcoin declines below certain loan-to-value ratios, Kraken may require us to deposit additional Bitcoin as collateral, repay a portion of the Loan, or declare Nakamoto Holdings in default"424B3 Nakamoto Inc. (NAKA, NAKAW) (CIK 0001946573) 2026-03-31
"Bitcoin does not pay interest or dividends."10-K Nakamoto Inc. (NAKA, NAKAW) (CIK 0001946573) 2026-03-30
"The Master Loan Agreement has a stated maturity date of December 4, 2026"424B3 Nakamoto Inc. (NAKA, NAKAW) (CIK 0001946573) 2026-03-31
"the total market capitalization of Bitcoin reaching $1.7 trillion as of December 2025"10-K Nakamoto Inc. (NAKA, NAKAW) (CIK 0001946573) 2026-03-30
"The Bitcoin protocol limits the total number of Bitcoins that can be generated over time to 21 million. As of December 31, 2025, approximately 20 million Bitcoins have been generated"424B3 Nakamoto Inc. (NAKA, NAKAW) (CIK 0001946573) 2026-03-31
"As of year end, the Company held 5,342 Bitcoin;"8-K Nakamoto Inc. (NAKA, NAKAW) (CIK 0001946573) 2026-03-31
"Its remaining balance stood at 1,861 BTC, valued by the company at approximately $121 million for liquidity purposes."Keel exits U.S. Bitcoin mining after $65M loss, shifts to AI
"with an aggregate fair value of approximately $345 million at quarter-end"8-K Nakamoto Inc. (NAKA, NAKAW) (CIK 0001946573) 2026-05-13
"Loss on changes in fair value of digital assets of $166.2 million reflects the decline in the value of Bitcoin from Nakamoto’s weighted average purchase price $118,171 to $87,519 at December 31, 2025;"8-K Nakamoto Inc. (NAKA, NAKAW) (CIK 0001946573) 2026-03-31
"Between April 1 and Aug. 7, the company sold 1,085 BTC for roughly $75 million."Keel exits U.S. Bitcoin mining after $65M loss, shifts to AI
"Mark-to-market Bitcoin losses of $102.5 million related to the decline in Bitcoin price from $87,519 as of December 31, 2025, to $68,220 as of March 31, 2026"8-K Nakamoto Inc. (NAKA, NAKAW) (CIK 0001946573) 2026-05-13
"The Company sold approximately $20 million of Bitcoin to establish a dedicated U.S. dollar operating reserve."8-K Nakamoto Inc. (NAKA, NAKAW) (CIK 0001946573) 2026-03-31
"intent is to liquidate our Bitcoin position in 2026."Keel exits U.S. Bitcoin mining after $65M loss, shifts to AI
"At the corporate level, the Company sold approximately 284 BTC to support working capital requirements."8-K Nakamoto Inc. (NAKA, NAKAW) (CIK 0001946573) 2026-05-13
"As of October 2025, Strategy held 640,418 bitcoin , worth around $70 billion."Companies now own more than $100 billion in bitcoin – but the shine may be wearing off crypto treasury companies (2025)
"Total liquidity reached approximately $819 million as of Aug. 7, comprising $698 million of unrestricted cash and $121 million of unencumbered Bitcoin."Keel exits U.S. Bitcoin mining after $65M loss, shifts to AI
"As of August 20, 2025, the Company held 5,764.91 bitcoin, a majority of which were purchased using the net proceeds from the PIPE and Debt Financings."424B3 Kindly MD, Inc. (NAKA, NAKAW) (CIK 0001946573) 2025-09-04
"Strategy, formerly called MicroStrategy, first bought US$250 million (£187 million) worth of bitcoin in mid-2020 during the depths of the COVID economic slump."Companies now own more than $100 billion in bitcoin – but the shine may be wearing off crypto treasury companies (2025)
"Bitcoin is a highly volatile asset that has traded below $75,000 per Bitcoin and above $120,000"10-Q Kindly MD, Inc. (NAKA, NAKAW) (CIK 0001946573) 2025-11-19
"we completed our Merger with Nakamoto, a Bitcoin treasury strategy company"10-Q Kindly MD, Inc. (NAKA, NAKAW) (CIK 0001946573) 2025-11-19
"We view our Bitcoin holdings as long-term holdings and expect to continue to accumulate Bitcoin in the future."10-Q Kindly MD, Inc. (NAKA, NAKAW) (CIK 0001946573) 2025-11-19
"The vast majority of our assets are concentrated in our Bitcoin holdings."10-Q Kindly MD, Inc. (NAKA, NAKAW) (CIK 0001946573) 2025-11-19
"We hold Bitcoin directly and also invest in other companies that maintain Bitcoin as a treasury reserve asset"10-Q Kindly MD, Inc. (NAKA, NAKAW) (CIK 0001946573) 2025-11-19
Ask your own question