Why Hasn't Anyone Gone to Mars Yet? Machines, Money, or a Trip With No Return?
In 2016 SpaceX said it would send an updated Dragon, named Red Dragon, to Mars by the end of the decade 1, and the Mars timelines that followed have repeatedly slipped 62.
Watch the 2-minute videoIn short
SpaceX built its Raptor engine to use a fuel that could be made on Mars. That means a trip back to Earth could be possible. The Merlin engine on Falcon rockets can't do that 3. In 2017, a Falcon 9 first stage was flown a second time. This met the company's reuse goal 6. Starship was designed to be fully reusable. The goal is to cut the cost of carrying each tonne of cargo, compared with Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy 7. The Soyuz rocket has had only two incidents where people died. It has also had two incidents where the mission was lost 26. The crew's risk can last about three hours before and during launch. This starts after the crew gets on the spacecraft 30. In 2013, Mars One got applications from 202,586 people 55. Before its bankruptcy, it had cut its list down to 100 names 56. Mars One is now in administration. Its goal to launch to Mars in 2031 is no longer being pursued 59. The Brine Processor Assembly on the ISS has run for almost four years. That is well past its planned one-year test 15. As of February 2025, it had recovered an estimated 1087 kg of water from urine brine 21. As of May 2025, Musk gave a 50-50 chance of meeting the 2026 deadline for the first uncrewed Starship mission to Mars. He said SpaceX would wait another two years if it was not ready 2.
A Reusable Spaceship Still in Planning
The Raptor engine was built to use a fuel that could be made on Mars. So a trip back to Earth would be possible. This is not true for the Merlin engine on Falcon rockets 3.
SpaceX said it will send an updated Dragon, named Red Dragon, to Mars by the end of the decade 1. Musk called the Red Dragon Mars mission the first test flight for Dragon's ability to land on other planets 5. The ITS was designed to be 122 m tall 4. It could carry up to 550 t of cargo to a low orbit around Earth 4.
The first stage used for CRS-8 in April 2016 flew the SES-10 mission on 30 March 2017. This reached the reuse goal for Falcon 9 first stages 6. Starship was designed with the aim of full reusability 7. The aim was to greatly lower transport costs for each tonne of cargo, compared with Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy 7.
Getting Off the Ground, and What It Might Cost
The Soyuz-11 crew died in 1971. They were given a state funeral. Their urns with ashes were placed in small spaces in the Kremlin Wall 51. A paper mentions a Soyuz incident in 1983. It is the most recent one the paper mentions 29. The Soyuz rocket has had only two incidents where people died in over 40 years 26.
Experts try to put numbers on risk. In the Space Shuttle risk study, human error was an important part of the risk, about 12 percent of the risk of losing the crew or the vehicle 27. NASA's goals for how reliable its next crewed rocket should be are several times higher than the Shuttle's. They may be higher than the Soyuz's too 31.
Launch carries risk. Once the crew is on board, the risk lasts about three hours before and during launch 30. NASA's risk experts count thousands of possible abort scenarios 32. Orion is built to carry up to four crew, and later it could carry six. It is meant to bring them safely home to Earth 33. Living for months in cramped quarters is tolerable, as on the International Space Station, but it is not comfortable 34.
Mars on Paper and the Idea of a One-Way Trip
A Mars mission study gave the crew no way to cut the trip short and head home much sooner. No more supplies could be sent 41. Mars-96 was an automatic station with no crew on board, so no one could decide to turn back 39. It never got onto its path to Mars, because a part of its rocket failed. The spacecraft fell back into Earth's air about 5 hours after launch 42.
In 2005, the workshop authors still expected humans to go to Mars within the first several decades of the 21st century 64. The main view was that robots would not match human observation and decision-making in that time frame 65. The authors concluded that a crew of both women and men is the right choice for a future first human mission to Mars 35. They also argued that good crew behavior comes from good surroundings, not from people who are just good 36.
The one-way idea drew a crowd. After a journal published a one-way Mars trip plan, its editors got more than 500 emails from people who wanted to be the first to live on Mars 44. The people who wrote in included students, soldiers, police officers, nurses, and space fans 46. Many of them said they had no training for this at all, but they still added their names to the list 48. In 2013, Mars One got applications from 202,586 people. The list was cut down to 1,058 finalists 55. One applicant, Joseph Sweeney, said he would go even if the odds were 99-to-1 against surviving the two-year trip 45. Researchers say that in deep space, if the systems that keep people alive fail, the crew likely cannot go back to Earth or reach a safe place. Near Earth and the Moon, a quick return is possible 40.
Mars One's Troubles and the Question of Consent
Mars One had recently cut its list of applicants down to 100 names. It planned to cut the list even more before full-time training 56. The training was planned for a remote place. Astronauts would practice living in and fixing a home like one built for Mars 57. The report does not say this training began 57. Delays and setbacks pushed the launch deadline back by nearly 10 years. The first target had been a landing in 2023 58. Mars One then went into administration and was at risk of being shut down. Its goal of launching to Mars in 2031 was no longer being pursued 59.
For trips to Mars, one argument says an astronaut may not be able to quit. The distances in space and the way the planets line up might make it impossible to get back to Earth outside the planned time 37. Another argument says astronaut candidates, after they are picked and trained, are hard to say they do not know about the risks of spaceflight. So they can be seen as agreeing to those risks 38.
Deep space is far beyond the space near Earth. It brings many risks at once to the nervous system. These risks may hurt how well astronauts work and how they feel 25. The abstract does not say whether astronauts accept these risks 25. It also does not say how space agencies describe them 25.
Small Steps on Recycling Water
Water recovery has a long test history. A 1991 water recovery test described in one paper was a ground test at the Marshall Space Flight Center, not an operation on the International Space Station 11. The Water Recovery System was first installed temporarily in the Destiny module in November 2008 and later moved to Tranquility in February 2010 24. In 2018 the Advanced Closed Loop System, sent up as a demonstrator planned for one to two years, proved successful and stayed aboard permanently 14.
The Brine Processor Assembly was built by Paragon Space Development Corporation. It was meant to be a one-year test 12. It has run on the space station for almost four years 15. That is much longer than planned. As of February 2025, it had done 60 full runs over 864 days. It had gotten back about 1087 kg of water from urine 21. The water is estimated to save about $81 million. That is after taking away the cost of supplies, like bladders and odor filters 23.
Not everything has gone smoothly. The Urine Processor Assembly was first meant to get back 85% of the water. Engineers changed the goal to 70% 17. The carbon dioxide reactor slowly got worse over the years 20. On the ground, a unit of the Primary Urine Processor, based on the BPA design, handled 314 liters of urine over 4 months. It got back 99.5% of the water 16.
Still unknown
Can the bone, muscle, immune, and brain strains be reduced enough for a multi-year round trip? The checked evidence describes these risks but does not show whether they can be lowered to acceptable levels.
Would a crew ever be allowed to turn back, and who would decide? The checked evidence contains no documented debate on one-way Mars missions beyond the 2005 workshop view [11], so the moral question is thin in these sources.
Will SpaceX's 2026 and later Mars windows hold, given the documented pattern of slipped dates? The sources describe the pattern but cannot say which future dates will be met [7][8].
Propulsion and life support, including oxygen, water, food, power, and heavy landings, are thinly covered in the checked evidence, so the engineering limits there remain largely unsettled.
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"In 2013, the space venture attracted applications from 202,586 people in just five months, drawing interest from some 140 countries. The list was cut down to 1,058 finalists — who then went through several more rounds of reductions."mars one fizzles into bankruptcy after promising a new life in space
"The company had recently whittled down its large application list of would-be Martians to 100 names, with plans to reduce it further before starting full-time training."mars one fizzles into bankruptcy after promising a new life in space
"The Mars One astronauts were to be "sequestered in a remote location," the company had said, where they could practice living in (and repairing) a habitat like one designed for life on Mars."mars one fizzles into bankruptcy after promising a new life in space
"Delays and setbacks forced the company to push its launch deadline back by nearly 10 years."mars one fizzles into bankruptcy after promising a new life in space
"Now, instead of moving toward its goal of launching a Mars mission in 2031, the company "is in administration," according to its website"mars one fizzles into bankruptcy after promising a new life in space
"2030-2031 transfer window, where SpaceX intends to start sending humans to Mars. In this window, SpaceX wants 100 landers with 150 tons per ship to deliver, people, equipment for road and pad construction, habitat construction, and to increase the available power and storage capacity of what would be a Mars colony at this point."The Future of the Starship Program, Block 3 and Mars - NASASpaceFlight.com
"These are very ambitious goals for SpaceX, as nothing like this has ever been attempted in human history. Some of these goals will likely be pushed back by a transfer window or two."The Future of the Starship Program, Block 3 and Mars - NASASpaceFlight.com
"The pattern across the eight-year sequence is roughly consistent: Musk announces an ambitious Mars timeline approximately five years in advance, SpaceX makes substantial but not complete progress on the prerequisite technologies, the announced date arrives without the mission, and a new target is announced for the next transfer window."Five uncrewed Starship rockets are projected to launch toward Mars during the brief window in late 2026 when the two planets align for the closest possible journey — and depending on whether they arri
"The next Mars transfer window opens in November 2026 and closes in December."SpaceX Starship 2026 Launch Schedule: Orbital Payload, Moon Landers, and Mars Window
"Sometime within the first several decades of this 21st century, humans will likely venture to Mars, back to the Moon, and possibly to other locations within our solar system."Planetary Protection Issues in the Human Exploration of Mars (2003)
"the predominant viewpoint is still that a later human exploration phase, conducted in conjunction with accompanying robotic equipment, will bring powers of observation and decision making not anticipated from robots within the expected time frame of a first human mission to Mars."Planetary Protection Issues in the Human Exploration of Mars (2003)
"Almost 20% of articles evaluated did not comply with journal policies on documenting consent, and, in an additional 30%, it was not possible to document compliance because journal policies did not require documentation within the manuscript."Patient and family consent for publication: A bibliographic and ethical analysis of recent case reports from a single institution (2025)
"It does not establish any rights for any person and is not binding on FDA or the public."Informed Consent: Guidance for Institutional Review Boards, Clinical Investigators, and Sponsors; Availability (Health and Human Services Department, Food and Drug Administration, 2023-08-16)
"For an IRB to approve a waiver or alteration of informed consent requirements for minimal risk clinical investigations, the rule requires an IRB to find and document five criteria"Institutional Review Board Waiver or Alteration of Informed Consent for Minimal Risk Clinical Investigations (Health and Human Services Department, Food and Drug Administration, 2023-12-21)
"in an additional 30%, it was not possible to document compliance because journal policies did not require documentation within the manuscript."Patient and family consent for publication: A bibliographic and ethical analysis of recent case reports from a single institution (2025)
"intended to assist IRBs, clinical investigators, and sponsors"Informed Consent: Guidance for Institutional Review Boards, Clinical Investigators, and Sponsors; Availability (Health and Human Services Department, Food and Drug Administration, 2023-08-16)
"FDA is not including a requirement in Sec. 50.22 that the investigator obtain consent from subjects or LARs if feasible"Institutional Review Board Waiver or Alteration of Informed Consent for Minimal Risk Clinical Investigations (Health and Human Services Department, Food and Drug Administration, 2023-12-21)
"Seemingly, the death of a research participant renders new consent ‘‘impracticable’’."La recherche internationale en génétique et l’utilisation secondaire des données : entre dissociation et harmonisation (2015)
"Waivers or alterations of informed consent under Sec. 50.22 are intended for situations where it is impracticable to carry out the clinical investigation, as designed, without the waiver or alteration."Institutional Review Board Waiver or Alteration of Informed Consent for Minimal Risk Clinical Investigations (Health and Human Services Department, Food and Drug Administration, 2023-12-21)
"Minors cannot consent to research participation by law, requiring parental consent, and participation must be fully voluntary without affecting access to standard care."Ethics of Puberty Blocker Policy: Consent, Evidence, and Clinical Justice (2025)
"Although the particular case of research with deceased individuals’ data is not directly addressed, it would be covered by the third criteria, above, since death makes obtaining new consent impracticable."La recherche internationale en génétique et l’utilisation secondaire des données : entre dissociation et harmonisation (2015)
"that provision requires IRB approval of informed consent procedures and an informed consent document that are to be used to obtain consent from a subject or LAR, when feasible."Institutional Review Board Waiver or Alteration of Informed Consent for Minimal Risk Clinical Investigations (Health and Human Services Department, Food and Drug Administration, 2023-12-21)
"But they cannot consent to take part in research. parents will have to consent on their behalf."Ethics of Puberty Blocker Policy: Consent, Evidence, and Clinical Justice (2025)
"A requirement of individual informed consent would make the conduct of the research impracticable[33]."La recherche internationale en génétique et l’utilisation secondaire des données : entre dissociation et harmonisation (2015)
"原计划于2029年前后发射,在 月球南极 莫顿环形山 ( 英语 : Mons Mouton ) [ 註 2 ] 着陆,与 嫦娥七号 组成中国 月球南极 的科研站基本型。"
"嫦娥八号也是 国际月球科研站 建设阶段中国方面的第一个探测器"
"JAXA said the mission will also explore the possibility of using Phobos as a "natural space station" by establishing the requirements for a round trip—something "essential for crewed Mars exploration.""Japan to launch world-first mission to moon of Mars
"The Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency's launch of the spacecraft Tuesday on a new Japanese mainstay H-3 rocket comes as the United States, China and others consider sending astronauts to Mars."Japan to launch spacecraft on a mission to get samples from a Martian moon
"China plans to launch its own Mars sample return mission in 2028."Japan launches unprecedented mission to bring back samples from Mars' moon Phobos
"The uncrewed Martian Moons eXploration (MMX) probe, a collaboration with US and European space agencies, as well as numerous universities and tech companies, could also help lay the groundwork for eventual human exploration."Japan prepares historic Mars mission - Taipei Times
"Those involved hope that it will help lay the groundwork for eventual human exploration."Japan to launch world-first mission to moon of Mars
"scientists to consider using a Martian moon as a base for a future crewed mission to the planet"Japan to launch spacecraft on a mission to get samples from a Martian moon
"The mission would also explore the possibility of using Phobos as a “natural space station” by establishing the requirements for a round trip to Mars — something “essential for crewed Mars exploration,” JAXA said."Japan prepares historic Mars mission - Taipei Times
"Japan and China could end up neck and neck in returning samples from the Martian system, as both are targeting 2031."Japan launches unprecedented mission to bring back samples from Mars' moon Phobos
"China's Tianwen-3 spacecraft is scheduled for launch around 2028 and hopes to return Mars samples to Earth as early as 2031—potentially before the Japanese mission's return."Japan to launch world-first mission to moon of Mars
"that can help future crewed Mars exploration."Japan to launch spacecraft on a mission to get samples from a Martian moon
"Meanwhile, China has announced its Tianwen-3 spacecraft is scheduled for launch in about 2028 and hopes to return Mars samples to Earth as early as 2031 — potentially before MMX."Japan prepares historic Mars mission - Taipei Times
"U.S. and Chinese space agencies have also been vying to be the first to return rock samples from Mars' surface back to Earth."Japan to launch world-first mission to moon of Mars
"Only the third module will return home, with the samples stored in a capsule."Japan to launch spacecraft on a mission to get samples from a Martian moon
"Staying longer in outer space will inevitably increase the health risks of astronauts due to the exposures to galactic cosmic rays and solar particle events."Consequences of space radiation on the brain and cardiovascular system. (J Environ Sci Health C Toxicol Carcinog, 2021)
"can disrupt or adversely affect immune cell biology"Astroimmunology: the effects of spaceflight and its associated stressors on the immune system. (Nat Rev Immunol, 2026 Mar)
"Significant reduction of inflammation and DNA double strand breaks (DSBs) activity and rescue of mitochondria functions are observed after antagomir treatment."Space radiation damage rescued by inhibition of key spaceflight associated miRNAs. (Nat Commun, 2024 Jun 11)
"Exposure may pose a significant hazard to space flight crews not only during the mission but also later, when slow-developing adverse effects could finally become apparent."Consequences of space radiation on the brain and cardiovascular system. (J Environ Sci Health C Toxicol Carcinog, 2021)
"International Space Station (ISS) datasets establish that 6-month microgravity exposure produces a 5.3–9.0% reduction in paraspinal cross-sectional area"PARASPINAL MUSCLE ATROPHY AND INTERVERTEBRAL DISC DEGENERATION UNDER LONG-DURATION MICROGRAVITY: IMPLICATIONS FOR HUMAN MISSIONS TO MARS (2025)
"spaceflight alters host-microbiome interactions"Astroimmunology: the effects of spaceflight and its associated stressors on the immune system. (Nat Rev Immunol, 2026 Mar)
"Using data from astronaut participants in the NASA Twin Study, Inspiration4, and JAXA missions, we reveal the genes and pathways implicated in the action of these antagomirs are altered in humans."Space radiation damage rescued by inhibition of key spaceflight associated miRNAs. (Nat Commun, 2024 Jun 11)
"Numerous animal and cellular models have repeatedly demonstrated the negative effects of high-energy charged-particle on the brain and cognitive function."Consequences of space radiation on the brain and cardiovascular system. (J Environ Sci Health C Toxicol Carcinog, 2021)
"recorded a mean lumbar spine BMD reduction of 6.2% over six months, with incomplete recovery at twelve months"PARASPINAL MUSCLE ATROPHY AND INTERVERTEBRAL DISC DEGENERATION UNDER LONG-DURATION MICROGRAVITY: IMPLICATIONS FOR HUMAN MISSIONS TO MARS (2025)
"their combined effects during spaceflight remain less understood"Astroimmunology: the effects of spaceflight and its associated stressors on the immune system. (Nat Rev Immunol, 2026 Mar)
"However, research on the role of space radiation in potentiating cardiovascular dysfunction is still in its early stages."Consequences of space radiation on the brain and cardiovascular system. (J Environ Sci Health C Toxicol Carcinog, 2021)
"estimated lumbar vertebral compressive strength fell by an average of 10% after 6-month missions"PARASPINAL MUSCLE ATROPHY AND INTERVERTEBRAL DISC DEGENERATION UNDER LONG-DURATION MICROGRAVITY: IMPLICATIONS FOR HUMAN MISSIONS TO MARS (2025)
"This exposure carries risks to the central nervous system (CNS) that could jeopardize the mission and astronaut health."Microglia: Ally and Enemy in Deep Space. (Neurosci Biobehav Rev, 2021 Jul)
"Prolonged spaceflight can induce physiologic and pathologic abnormalities in the central nervous system (CNS)."Oxidative stress, neuroinflammation, and the blood-brain barrier biomarkers on the brain response to spaceflight. (Life Sci Space Res (Amst), 2024 Nov)
"The SDI in its current form does not include a radiation-driven term, and this is a limitation that reflects the state of the evidence rather than a judgment that radiation is unimportant."PARASPINAL MUSCLE ATROPHY AND INTERVERTEBRAL DISC DEGENERATION UNDER LONG-DURATION MICROGRAVITY: IMPLICATIONS FOR HUMAN MISSIONS TO MARS (2025)
"Multiple studies have shown that GCR simulation induces a maladaptive activation of microglia - the brain-resident immune cells."Microglia: Ally and Enemy in Deep Space. (Neurosci Biobehav Rev, 2021 Jul)
"including microgravity, physiological/psychological stress, and radiation from galactic cosmic rays (GCR) and solar particle events (SPEs) outside of low earth orbit (LEO)"Oxidative stress, neuroinflammation, and the blood-brain barrier biomarkers on the brain response to spaceflight. (Life Sci Space Res (Amst), 2024 Nov)
"GCR simulation also induced synaptic changes resulting in lasting cognitive and behavioral defects."Microglia: Ally and Enemy in Deep Space. (Neurosci Biobehav Rev, 2021 Jul)
"Oxidative stress or other environmental stressors may disrupt BBB integrity and increase permeability leading to immune cell infiltration and undesirable neuroinflammation."Oxidative stress, neuroinflammation, and the blood-brain barrier biomarkers on the brain response to spaceflight. (Life Sci Space Res (Amst), 2024 Nov)
"Female and male mice show different susceptibilities to GCR exposure, and evidence suggests this sexually dimorphic response is linked to microglia."Microglia: Ally and Enemy in Deep Space. (Neurosci Biobehav Rev, 2021 Jul)
"Manipulating microglia can prevent the development of cognitive deficits in male mice exposed to components of GCR."Microglia: Ally and Enemy in Deep Space. (Neurosci Biobehav Rev, 2021 Jul)
"NASA has delayed the launch of its Artemis II lunar fly-by mission by at least a month."NASA delays launch of Artemis II lunar mission by a month : NPR
"10L: First crewed lunar landing (September 1968)"Soviet crewed lunar programs
"At that time, the first lunar landing mission was projected to take place in 2020."Blue Moon (spacecraft)
"Most importantly, the test revealed NASA still has not fully resolved recurring hydrogen leaks that delayed the launch of the unpiloted Artemis I test flight by several months in 2022."Unable to tame hydrogen leaks, NASA delays launch of Artemis II until ...
"During critical pre-launch testing Monday, mission managers uncovered a number of issues that prevented the completion of the test."NASA delays launch of Artemis II lunar mission by a month : NPR
"Korolev's death in 1966, along with various technical and administrative reasons, as well as a lack of financial support, resulted in both programs being delayed."Soviet crewed lunar programs
"Going into the countdown rehearsal, NASA officials hoped a smooth test would clear the way to launch the Artemis II mission as soon as Sunday, February 8."Unable to tame hydrogen leaks, NASA delays launch of Artemis II until ...
"resulted in the destruction of the rocket and the entire launch complex, which delayed the N1-L3 program for two years."Soviet crewed lunar programs
"Design work on a Blue Origin robotic lunar lander began in 2016."Blue Moon (spacecraft)
"The leak appeared in the same location it did during the Artemis I launch campaign nearly three years ago."Unable to tame hydrogen leaks, NASA delays launch of Artemis II until ...
"Hydrogen leaks plagued testing of NASA's Artemis I mission in 2022."NASA delays launch of Artemis II lunar mission by a month : NPR
"The Proton-based Zond program was canceled in 1970"Soviet crewed lunar programs
"Agency officials said in 2022 that the safe limit was a 4 percent concentration of hydrogen gas in the housing around the fueling connector. Hydrogen levels exceeded NASA’s safety limit multiple times during the practice countdown that ran from Monday into early Tuesday."Unable to tame hydrogen leaks, NASA delays launch of Artemis II until ...
"A valve that pressurizes the vehicle required additional attention and took more time to close the hatch than anticipated."NASA delays launch of Artemis II lunar mission by a month : NPR
"However, N1-L3 (as well as N1F-L3M) program was canceled in May 1974"Soviet crewed lunar programs
"Bigelow Commercial Space Station or Space Complex Alpha , was a proposed private space habitat scheduled for 2021 initial deployment although this was suspended indefinitely as a result of Bigelow temporarily laying off their entire staff due to the COVID-19 pandemic ."List of crewed spacecraft
"NASA said the countdown terminated “due to a spike in the liquid hydrogen leak rate.”"Unable to tame hydrogen leaks, NASA delays launch of Artemis II until ...
"Cancelled to speed up production and launch of the Artemis V and the NASA lunar base"List of crewed spacecraft
"The X-20 Dyna-Soar was a United States Air Force spaceplane intended to be used for military missions. The program to develop the spaceplane began in 1957 and was cancelled in 1963."List of crewed spacecraft
"Buran , a Soviet space shuttle cancelled after only one uncrewed orbital flight in 1988."List of crewed spacecraft
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